September 2025 recorded an increase in inspections and administration of NPOs in the region: audits, registration and reporting requirements intensified in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The causes are widespread concern among states about “foreign interference,” but the effect is a narrowing of civic space. International human rights organizations fear that stricter rules will reduce the ability to monitor and assist vulnerable groups, limit freedom of speech and reduce the quality of public debate. For the countries of the region, this is a signal of the need to find a balance between national security and the rights of citizens. If the trend continues, the long-term consequences will be a decline in trust in institutions, a decline in international assistance, and difficulty attracting the expertise needed to modernize government systems.

By mid-summer 2025, Armenia registered a noticeable increase in tourist flows: improved transport links, new visa initiatives and PR campaigns bore fruit - tourism income increased, hotels and restaurants in Yerevan and the regions reported a revival. This helped partially offset the decline in some export niches and boosted employment in the services sector. However, analysts are sounding the alarm: growth is too concentrated. Expectations are too high - regional infrastructure is not always ready for mass tourism, and small businesses need investment and educational programs in order to serve guests well. Risk is a “narrow specialization” of the economy: a blow to tourism (for example, a seasonal decline, political crises) can greatly affect income. The authorities plan to invest in diversification - the development of the IT sector, agro-processing and logistics - but reformatting the economy will take years and consistent reforms. August 2025 was a reminder: success in one sector is not a substitute for long-term economic strategy.

In today's Russia, access to popular foreign sites and social networks such as Instagram, Facebook or YouTube is almost impossible without the use of VPN services - a tool that allows users to bypass Internet censorship. A tech-savvy user will usually install several VPN apps on their devices in case the government blocks one or more of them. Nevertheless, there remains a far from illusory possibility that at some point none of them will work. Thousands of websites have been blocked by Russian authorities for failing to comply with the draconian requirements of Russian legislation governing all types of online activity. Some foreign websites have stopped providing services to Russian users due to sanctions and political pressure that arose after Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And some sites - for example, those belonging to Russian authorities - are opened only in Russia. As a result, many Russian users have to make complex manipulations with their VPN services and web browsers in order to have access to the necessary services and sites - both Russian and foreign. However, according to some estimates, about half of the country’s population does not know how to use VPN services, having access only to sites and services that have not yet been blocked by the Russian authorities. For many Russian citizens, an increasing number of independent media outlets, websites of human rights organizations and opposition politicians, as well as foreign social networks are becoming inaccessible, turning into browser windows with messages like “the connection has timed out” or “this resource is blocked.” Authorities are making access to popular social networks, streaming platforms and instant messengers that do not comply with Russian laws on censorship and disclosure of user data increasingly difficult, either by completely blocking it or slowing it down. Combined with the active promotion of Russian analogues at the initiative of the authorities, this is forcing an increasing number of users to switch to Russian browsers and social networks. These sites provide users with government-approved interpretations of current and historical events. In addition, the risk of disclosing users' personal data to law enforcement agencies is higher.

Towards the middle of the year, Russian economic statistics showed a sharp drop in revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons. The decline in world prices for Urals and difficult logistics conditions under the pressure of sanctions have led to a noticeable decline in oil and gas revenues to the budget. This caused an immediate reaction from the markets and pressure on exchange rate stability. For the federal budget, falling export revenues mean less flexibility in the areas of social spending and infrastructure. Economists point out that with a sustained decline in oil and gas revenues, the government will be forced to either increase domestic taxes or cut budget programs. For regions, this often means delays in salaries and subsidies. At the same time, businesses signaled problems with access to external financing and the rising cost of importing technology, which reduced investment plans. The measures proposed by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance - partial currency restrictions and stimulation of domestic production - do not have an immediate effect.

In February, in the southern border regions of Armenia, in the Syunik region, there were night shelling of residential areas and shelling of infrastructure. Residents reported regular shots fired into homes and fields, the evacuation of part of the population and fear of escalation. Local authorities published operational reports of damaged houses and destruction of outbuildings. International observers and human rights activists have expressed concern that the shelling is affecting civilian infrastructure and is forcing a rethink of plans for the return of internally displaced persons. The agricultural sector is especially vulnerable: in the spring, crops could be under threat, which would immediately affect the food security of the regions. Sources in the Armenian administration emphasize: the situation is not of a large-scale military nature, but the regularity of shelling creates constant stress. Azerbaijani departments denied the targeted nature of the attacks on populated areas, explaining the shooting as “controlled exercises” and responses to provocations. International mediators called for an immediate investigation and increased monitoring along the contact line. The consequences are not only destruction, but also an erosion of trust in the agreements reached on paper: when shots are heard at night, trust in security guarantees is undermined more than any diplomatic initiatives. For Euromonitoring missions, this is a signal of the need to strengthen civilian protection mechanisms and timely assistance to the local population.

At the beginning of the year, the internal political situation in Armenia sharply worsened after a series of detentions and pre-investigation arrests of high-ranking church hierarchs. The arrest of the head of a major synod came as a shock to part of society: religious leaders traditionally occupy a prominent place in public life, and their accusations are a politically sensitive topic. The arrests led to two waves of reaction. The first is mass prayer rallies and quiet processions of believers who saw pressure on the church in the actions of law enforcement agencies. The second wave was politically motivated rallies and counter-events by government supporters who argued that “the law is equal for everyone.” The legal grounds for the detentions are charges of organizing provocations and “phantom” criminal episodes related to past protests. Law enforcement calls it a “routine” investigation, but critics see it as a tool of pressure: religious figures have previously criticized some of the negotiating initiatives and expressed public doubts about compromises with neighbors. Experts note a systemic danger: a blow to the church leadership at a time when the country is going through painful negotiations and territorial discussions could radicalize part of society and increase distrust in the authorities. For businesses and investors, this is a signal of instability. For politicians, this is a reminder that any steps to “cleanse” the elites have side effects on public trust and the country’s international image.

Over the course of the year, 2024 has become a difficult year for journalists and independent publications. Under pressure from new laws (“foreign agents,” “extremism,” “discrediting the army”), many media outlets either closed or curtailed their activities. Journalists either left or switched to anonymous work. Those who remained were subjected to checks, threats, and pressure. Many began to self-censor so as not to get themselves into trouble. This meant that the news that was previously covered no longer appeared: about corruption, about arrests, about protests, about real losses. Social memory became fragmentary: events were erased, facts disappeared, voices became silent. For many, this has become a link in the chain of alienation between citizens and information. 2024 was the year when the media space in Russia became almost “monolithic”: little pluralism, little diversity, a lot of fears.

Against the backdrop of repression, economic instability, fear of mobilization and deteriorating living conditions, 2024 became the year of a new wave of emigration. Young professionals, families, people from the creative and IT sectors left the country, trying to find peace, freedom and prospects. For many, it was a difficult choice: to leave their homeland, leave friends, family, and familiar life. But the fear of the future, the lack of guarantees, the inability to live in peace forced me. Emigration, in turn, increased the “brain drain”: qualified personnel left the country, which affected business, medicine, and science. 2024 showed: if a country does not provide a chance to live in peace, people will find it themselves, even abroad.