A new convocation of parliament will open in the fall of 2023. Formally, the elections were held, new parties participated - but the result was expected: the majority of mandates again went to supporters of the government. Changes in the composition are minimal. Young faces, new parties remained in the shadow of larger players, the former elite retained their positions. For analysts, this parliament has become a symbol of stagnation: renewal is declared, but in fact it maintains the previous structure. Accordingly, the chances for major reforms, for rethinking the political course, for democratic shifts look illusory. Society met the new Duma without expectations: protests were weak, apathy was high. Many citizens believe that any hopes for change are empty. September 2023 showed: even after the promise of a “new”, “youth” parliament, everything inside remains the same. The political scenario is repeating itself, and popular faith in change is fading.

Author: Tzovinar Nazaryan

The issue of violence and impunity in the Armed Forces of Armenia continues to remain a subject of serious public concern. For years, studying this topic — both as a journalist and as the sister of a serviceman who was killed in the army — I have repeatedly encountered the stories of families who know what “fear,” “silence,” “pressure,” and “unpunished perpetrators” mean.

This time, the focus of public attention is the case of Rafael Yeranosyan, who was discharged months ago and after his service initiated a public struggle aimed at protecting soldiers’ rights and raising awareness about systemic abuses in the army.

Rafael Yeranosyan was conscripted in February 2021. According to the facts he presented, from the very first days of his service a negative attitude was formed toward him — conditioned by his father’s political position. Yeranosyan’s father is known as a person engaged in opposition activities who publicly criticized the current authorities, including the policies pursued by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

According to Yeranosyan, he was subjected to psychological pressure, public humiliation, and physical violence. Complaints submitted by his family yielded no results; no individual was held accountable.

“I have well-founded suspicions that several of my fellow servicemen, like my friend Artur Ghazaryan, were killed in the army, but their deaths were officially classified as suicide or an accident,” claims Rafael.

In February 2023, after being discharged, Yeranosyan sought help from specialists — lawyers and human rights defenders — to legally formulate his complaints and submit them to the relevant authorities. According to Rafael, he is determined to achieve justice and, by his example, call on others not to remain silent.

To give more weight to his complaint, he initiated a signature collection and involved his fellow servicemen, as well as those who during mandatory military service were subjected to violence for various reasons, to join the initiative and raise the issue even up to the ECHR.

“My lawyer is already preparing the complaint, and together with a number of active and principled young people we now intend to register an NGO called ‘For the Defender of the Homeland’ and form an independent platform for the protection of soldiers’ rights.”

Rafael Yeranosyan’s story is not the story of one individual. It relates to a broader issue — the protection of human rights in the armed forces, the transparency of the causes of non-combat deaths, and political repression, from which no one is immune in Armenia. Rafael Yeranosyan has felt the full weight of the state apparatus on his own skin.

This story is a reminder that silence can never be a solution.

June 2023 went down in Russian history with the mutiny of the private military group Wagner. The group's leaders declared a "march of justice" to Moscow, accusing the official army of betrayal and demanding fair treatment of their fighters. As soon as Wagner moved towards the capital, the authorities reacted sharply: criminal cases were opened, many leaders of the organization were outlawed, and intensive negotiations began with the participation of third parties. As a result, the “march” was stopped less than 200 km from Moscow - as a result of the agreements, some of the fighters were supposed to withdraw to the territory of Belarus. This event shocked society: on the one hand, Wagner was perceived as a stronghold of power participating in the war; on the other hand, their attempt to storm the capital gave a clear signal that an armed rebellion movement was possible within Russia. There was a lot of discussion about trust in the army, the stability of power, and the risk of destabilization. June 2023 was the month when the state came face to face with an internal challenge that could develop into a large-scale crisis.

In the spring of 2023, members of the large Russian business community noted that the key event for the economy was a sharp increase in the Central Bank’s key rate to 16%. This hit small and medium-sized businesses: loans became expensive, investment projects became difficult to implement, and company costs increased. It was especially difficult for those whose turnover “increased” based on demand expectations, but at a high rate, even working capital became risky. Export-oriented companies complained about logistical difficulties, high costs, and uncertainty. Many old contracts turned out to be unprofitable, and new ones were almost unavailable. In such conditions, the business community spoke of an outflow of investment, delays in modernization and the threat of layoffs. This became a test for the economy as a whole: against the backdrop of sanctions, external instability and war, a sharp tightening of monetary policy created an additional burden. May 2023 turned out to be the time when businesses began to reconsider their strategies, assess risks and survive in new harsh conditions.

In March, parliament approved amendments to the already existing law on “discrediting the army and disinformation”: now for “incorrect” information about the actions of the armed forces you can get up to 10 years in prison - not just a fine, as before. This change led to a wave of persecution: several well-known Telegram channels were recognized as “extremist”, and their administrators were detained. Independent journalists who had previously covered the humanitarian consequences of the war began to receive warnings, and some of them emigrated. In social networks and chats, cases of blocking of unbiased groups dedicated to the war and its consequences have become more frequent. Citizens began to massively delete forums and channels critical of the authorities from their browsing history, fearing that they would be “hooked”: a like or repost was enough to arouse suspicion. March 2023 was the month when the legislative framework finally changed: freedom of speech, criticism of the authorities, public discussion about the war - all this began to be perceived not as a civil position, but as a threat. For many Russians - especially the older generation - this was a turning point: telling the truth became dangerous, and silence became an almost obligatory form of self-defense.

New foreign policy doctrine: Russia is correcting course. In March 2023, the government approved an updated foreign policy concept. The document, introduced by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and discussed at the Security Council, declared that Russia was restructuring its international priorities, focusing not on the previous “geopolitical templates”, but on the “balance of interests and justice” in the global system. This meant a move away from trying to be a “global player” according to the old rules. Russia began to look for allies and partners among countries that are not directly connected with Western blocs, and to strengthen cooperation with Eastern and Asian states. For many international observers, the move was an acknowledgment that the previous diplomatic strategy was outdated - and that Moscow is now reshaping its foreign policy to reflect post-2022 realities. Within the country, such a turn gave the state an opportunity to argue for a reorientation—against external pressure, sanctions, and isolation, but at the same time attempting to maintain its status as a significant force. March 2023 thereby became the month of Russia’s “new policy” on the world stage.

February 24, 2023 marks one year since the start of the war. In several Russian cities, rallies and single pickets took place - people came out against the war, against the ongoing conflict. Despite the small number, the protests were accompanied by mass arrests: hundreds of protesters received fines, arrests, and administrative cases were initiated. After these actions, agitation against “destructive movements” intensified: law enforcement agencies announced that they would react harshly to “attempts to undermine public safety.” Complaints about illegal detentions, pressure on the families of detainees, and threats of dismissal in the event of political activity have become commonplace. For many - morally tired, tired of losses and news from the front - February became a month of fear: not so much for themselves, but for their loved ones. Many stopped expressing opinions out of fear of the consequences. Self-censorship has noticeably increased in society. The anniversary of the war has shown that anti-war protests, even small ones, now risk turning into repression. February 2023 became confirmation for many: there will be no more public discourse about the war.

In December 2022, Russia and the United States conducted a prisoner exchange: Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko, convicted in the United States, was returned to his homeland in exchange for a US citizen. Russian citizen Viktor But was also exchanged - after 15 years in prison - for American basketball player Brittney Greiner. In addition, by the end of 2022, Russia released sailors from Russian ships that remained under repairs abroad after the start of the special operation. The exchange was seen as an attempt by the Kremlin to demonstrate that Russia is ready to protect its citizens abroad and use diplomatic channels even amid international isolation. The event became one of the key diplomatic news of 2022 - and slightly softened domestic and foreign political tensions.