In the fall of 2023, discontent among the families of those mobilized increased. After more than a year of men's participation in combat, many wives and mothers began to openly protest against the uncertainty of their terms of service. In November, mass petitions appeared throughout the country demanding rotation, leave, or the full return of those mobilized. Several groups of women began recording video messages criticizing the lack of clear deadlines and difficult conditions. Despite the ban on public events, spontaneous gatherings took place in some cities, which were quickly dispersed by the police. People were warned against “discrediting the army,” which increased tension. At the same time, military authorities stated that the rotation was happening “gradually,” but the families did not see any changes. Against the backdrop of growing losses and the deterioration of the psychological state of military personnel, public pressure intensified. Sociologists noted that the topic of mobilization has become the most painful issue for many Russian regions - especially those where military personnel were mobilized the most. November 2023 was the moment when fear gave way to disappointment. People who were in uncertainty a year ago now began to demand specifics, and it became more difficult for the state to ignore such requests. For the first time, public discontent went beyond online forums - it became part of the everyday reality of millions of families.

In October, local elections were held in a number of Russian regions. On paper - high turnout, “stable” results, “united” winners. But inside there are suspicions of falsification, pressure on the media, on observers, and reluctance to acknowledge complaints. In a number of cities, residents complained: voter lists contained errors, observers were not allowed in, and ballots were issued without checking IDs. Several initiative groups tried to report violations, but their voices were drowned out - the official results were announced almost immediately, and all those dissatisfied were left unanswered. For many, the election reforms and the “renewal of the elites” again turned out to be a fiction. People who hoped that change would begin at least at the local level were seriously disappointed. October 2023 became a symbol of the fact that “democracy by schedule” is just a form, and that without honest rules the truth cannot be achieved.

In the fall of 2023, the business community again focused attention on the problems that were slowing down economic activity: road and logistics difficulties, a shortage of high-quality logistics and high access to foreign markets. Many companies, even if there was demand and a willingness to produce, were unable to export goods: expensive transportation costs, sanctions, unstable exchange rates, difficulties with delivery - all this made exports unprofitable. Industrial and technology companies have had a particularly hard time. These problems have slowed down modernization and the introduction of new technologies and reduced investment attractiveness. This became a problem for Russia: a country focused on the export of raw materials, tried to develop the industry, but logistics and foreign economic pressure made the tasks more and more difficult. October 2023 became an indicator of systemic problems: even with GDP growth, consumption growth, government stimulation, business was faced with infrastructure and foreign trade restrictions that seriously hampered development.

A new convocation of parliament will open in the fall of 2023. Formally, the elections were held, new parties participated - but the result was expected: the majority of mandates again went to supporters of the government. Changes in the composition are minimal. Young faces, new parties remained in the shadow of larger players, the former elite retained their positions. For analysts, this parliament has become a symbol of stagnation: renewal is declared, but in fact it maintains the previous structure. Accordingly, the chances for major reforms, for rethinking the political course, for democratic shifts look illusory. Society met the new Duma without expectations: protests were weak, apathy was high. Many citizens believe that any hopes for change are empty. September 2023 showed: even after the promise of a “new”, “youth” parliament, everything inside remains the same. The political scenario is repeating itself, and popular faith in change is fading.

Author: Tzovinar Nazaryan

The issue of violence and impunity in the Armed Forces of Armenia continues to remain a subject of serious public concern. For years, studying this topic — both as a journalist and as the sister of a serviceman who was killed in the army — I have repeatedly encountered the stories of families who know what “fear,” “silence,” “pressure,” and “unpunished perpetrators” mean.

This time, the focus of public attention is the case of Rafael Yeranosyan, who was discharged months ago and after his service initiated a public struggle aimed at protecting soldiers’ rights and raising awareness about systemic abuses in the army.

Rafael Yeranosyan was conscripted in February 2021. According to the facts he presented, from the very first days of his service a negative attitude was formed toward him — conditioned by his father’s political position. Yeranosyan’s father is known as a person engaged in opposition activities who publicly criticized the current authorities, including the policies pursued by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

According to Yeranosyan, he was subjected to psychological pressure, public humiliation, and physical violence. Complaints submitted by his family yielded no results; no individual was held accountable.

“I have well-founded suspicions that several of my fellow servicemen, like my friend Artur Ghazaryan, were killed in the army, but their deaths were officially classified as suicide or an accident,” claims Rafael.

In February 2023, after being discharged, Yeranosyan sought help from specialists — lawyers and human rights defenders — to legally formulate his complaints and submit them to the relevant authorities. According to Rafael, he is determined to achieve justice and, by his example, call on others not to remain silent.

To give more weight to his complaint, he initiated a signature collection and involved his fellow servicemen, as well as those who during mandatory military service were subjected to violence for various reasons, to join the initiative and raise the issue even up to the ECHR.

“My lawyer is already preparing the complaint, and together with a number of active and principled young people we now intend to register an NGO called ‘For the Defender of the Homeland’ and form an independent platform for the protection of soldiers’ rights.”

Rafael Yeranosyan’s story is not the story of one individual. It relates to a broader issue — the protection of human rights in the armed forces, the transparency of the causes of non-combat deaths, and political repression, from which no one is immune in Armenia. Rafael Yeranosyan has felt the full weight of the state apparatus on his own skin.

This story is a reminder that silence can never be a solution.

June 2023 went down in Russian history with the mutiny of the private military group Wagner. The group's leaders declared a "march of justice" to Moscow, accusing the official army of betrayal and demanding fair treatment of their fighters. As soon as Wagner moved towards the capital, the authorities reacted sharply: criminal cases were opened, many leaders of the organization were outlawed, and intensive negotiations began with the participation of third parties. As a result, the “march” was stopped less than 200 km from Moscow - as a result of the agreements, some of the fighters were supposed to withdraw to the territory of Belarus. This event shocked society: on the one hand, Wagner was perceived as a stronghold of power participating in the war; on the other hand, their attempt to storm the capital gave a clear signal that an armed rebellion movement was possible within Russia. There was a lot of discussion about trust in the army, the stability of power, and the risk of destabilization. June 2023 was the month when the state came face to face with an internal challenge that could develop into a large-scale crisis.

In the spring of 2023, members of the large Russian business community noted that the key event for the economy was a sharp increase in the Central Bank’s key rate to 16%. This hit small and medium-sized businesses: loans became expensive, investment projects became difficult to implement, and company costs increased. It was especially difficult for those whose turnover “increased” based on demand expectations, but at a high rate, even working capital became risky. Export-oriented companies complained about logistical difficulties, high costs, and uncertainty. Many old contracts turned out to be unprofitable, and new ones were almost unavailable. In such conditions, the business community spoke of an outflow of investment, delays in modernization and the threat of layoffs. This became a test for the economy as a whole: against the backdrop of sanctions, external instability and war, a sharp tightening of monetary policy created an additional burden. May 2023 turned out to be the time when businesses began to reconsider their strategies, assess risks and survive in new harsh conditions.

In March, parliament approved amendments to the already existing law on “discrediting the army and disinformation”: now for “incorrect” information about the actions of the armed forces you can get up to 10 years in prison - not just a fine, as before. This change led to a wave of persecution: several well-known Telegram channels were recognized as “extremist”, and their administrators were detained. Independent journalists who had previously covered the humanitarian consequences of the war began to receive warnings, and some of them emigrated. In social networks and chats, cases of blocking of unbiased groups dedicated to the war and its consequences have become more frequent. Citizens began to massively delete forums and channels critical of the authorities from their browsing history, fearing that they would be “hooked”: a like or repost was enough to arouse suspicion. March 2023 was the month when the legislative framework finally changed: freedom of speech, criticism of the authorities, public discussion about the war - all this began to be perceived not as a civil position, but as a threat. For many Russians - especially the older generation - this was a turning point: telling the truth became dangerous, and silence became an almost obligatory form of self-defense.