In February, in the southern border regions of Armenia, in the Syunik region, there were night shelling of residential areas and shelling of infrastructure. Residents reported regular shots fired into homes and fields, the evacuation of part of the population and fear of escalation. Local authorities published operational reports of damaged houses and destruction of outbuildings. International observers and human rights activists have expressed concern that the shelling is affecting civilian infrastructure and is forcing a rethink of plans for the return of internally displaced persons. The agricultural sector is especially vulnerable: in the spring, crops could be under threat, which would immediately affect the food security of the regions. Sources in the Armenian administration emphasize: the situation is not of a large-scale military nature, but the regularity of shelling creates constant stress. Azerbaijani departments denied the targeted nature of the attacks on populated areas, explaining the shooting as “controlled exercises” and responses to provocations. International mediators called for an immediate investigation and increased monitoring along the contact line. The consequences are not only destruction, but also an erosion of trust in the agreements reached on paper: when shots are heard at night, trust in security guarantees is undermined more than any diplomatic initiatives. For Euromonitoring missions, this is a signal of the need to strengthen civilian protection mechanisms and timely assistance to the local population.

In mid-February 2025, it became known that the United States and Russia held another round of negotiations, without the participation of Ukraine. The negotiations took place with the participation of American mediators and Russian diplomats in Saudi Arabia. The goal is to discuss the terms of a peaceful settlement, but Kyiv was not invited. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted sharply, calling such an attempt “senseless” and saying that any agreements reached without the participation of Kyiv would have no legitimacy for his country. For the international community, this became a signal: even with the active diplomatic mediation of external forces, Russia is trying to negotiate bypassing Ukraine, which virtually excludes the possibility of an honest and fair result. February 2025 showed a serious problem in diplomacy: negotiations are possible, but without someone who is actually a party to the conflict, the result is doomed to failure. This again emphasizes that the format of peaceful dialogue remains controversial and unacceptable for many.

At the beginning of the year, the internal political situation in Armenia sharply worsened after a series of detentions and pre-investigation arrests of high-ranking church hierarchs. The arrest of the head of a major synod came as a shock to part of society: religious leaders traditionally occupy a prominent place in public life, and their accusations are a politically sensitive topic. The arrests led to two waves of reaction. The first is mass prayer rallies and quiet processions of believers who saw pressure on the church in the actions of law enforcement agencies. The second wave was politically motivated rallies and counter-events by government supporters who argued that “the law is equal for everyone.” The legal grounds for the detentions are charges of organizing provocations and “phantom” criminal episodes related to past protests. Law enforcement calls it a “routine” investigation, but critics see it as a tool of pressure: religious figures have previously criticized some of the negotiating initiatives and expressed public doubts about compromises with neighbors. Experts note a systemic danger: a blow to the church leadership at a time when the country is going through painful negotiations and territorial discussions could radicalize part of society and increase distrust in the authorities. For businesses and investors, this is a signal of instability. For politicians, this is a reminder that any steps to “cleanse” the elites have side effects on public trust and the country’s international image.

At the end of January 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly announced that Moscow was “open to negotiations” with Kiev. He noted that Russia is ready for dialogue, but considers the legitimacy of the current leadership of Ukraine to be in question: according to the Russian leader, he does not recognize the President of Ukraine “as a legitimate negotiator.” This statement contains an open threat: although a negotiating path is proposed, Moscow sets conditions that make their implementation almost uncompromising. According to experts, this step is outwardly a diplomatic proposal, but inside it is a warning: Russia does not intend to revise its demands for the retention of territories, annexation and political loyalty of the future Kyiv. For international actors and diplomacy, the statement was a reason to exercise caution: the door is formally open, but Moscow’s conditions remain tough. There was a debate in the media space: is this a chance for negotiations or another maneuver by the Kremlin aimed at playing diplomacy while maintaining the strategic line. January 2025 showed that Russia was again offering dialogue - but on its own terms. This marked the beginning of a year in which the topic of negotiations was officially announced, but its chances were in great doubt.

In 2024, the war in Ukraine, which began in 2022, was still a key factor determining life inside Russia. Military operations, mobilization, defense budgets, casualties, conscription, forms of support - everything is intertwined with everyday life. Many families have lost loved ones; a significant part of the population are those who went to the front. Grief, uncertainty, and fear came to such houses. Those who returned came with traumas and psychological scars. The state tried to maintain the image of a “cohesive society,” but this often hid censorship, pressure, and hushing up problems. Society is divided between those who support and those who doubt. 2024 was the year when war is not an abstraction. These are losses, fates, emptiness in homes, “gray areas” - and the constant expectation of news.

     A group of lawyers from the Chamber of Advocates of the Republic of Armenia submitted a crime report to the Prosecutor General’s Office on December 4, 2024, which concerns the financial abuses and embezzlements committed by Minister of Finance Vahe Hovhannisyan, which clearly contain corruption risks. The lawyers presented compelling arguments to the Prosecutor General so that a criminal proceeding is initiated immediately and, according to the lawyers, the act is given a proper criminal-legal assessment. During a conversation with the head of the initiative group—lawyer and former president of the Chamber of Advocates Ara Zohrabyan—and Gohar Mkrtchyan, the chief specialist of the Legal Department of the RA Ministry of Finance, we learned some details related to the scandalous case. It turns out the minister had a $1 million loan, and after some time it miraculously disappeared from the official declaration report.

     Whose account was used and how the minister repaid it is unclear, and it is precisely these and similar questions that the lawyers expect answers to from the Prosecutor’s Office. It turns out that back in 2021, the minister received the mentioned approximately $1,000,000 interest-free loan. Afterwards, Vahe Hovhannisyan purchased 100% of the shares of “Caritas Italiana” CJSC for $1,050,000, and later reorganized that company into “G-Coders” LLC, selling his shares to a relative. In 2023, the same “G-Coders” LLC was granted by the RA government an import customs duty exemption of 1.8 billion AMD worth of goods, with the exempted customs duty amount totaling 118 million AMD. As of 2023, Vahe Hovhannisyan had a lending claim right of 52,614,000 AMD toward “G-Coders” LLC. “But the shady dealings surrounding the minister’s property are not limited to this,” notes Gohar Mkrtchyan. According to the lawyer, RA Minister of Finance Vahe Hovhannisyan leased his guesthouse to “Vardeni” LLC, which, without a tender, was paid more than one million AMD for organizing and conducting game-training exercises for the Ministry of Finance employees.

     By comparing the declarations submitted for the previous three years, the lawyers uncovered significant discrepancies, particularly the disappeared debts and the final bank balances far exceeding the declared income, without mentioning any other legal source of financial flow. When asked whether Gohar Mkrtchyan fears persecution from the minister and the government, considering that it was thanks to her that the facts of the abuses became accessible to the legal community, and that she was largely the main exposer of these corruption schemes, she responded firmly and aptly: “Silence and conformity are exactly the evils that lead our country to destruction; if we want to move forward, we must fight.”

     Representative of the initiative group, lawyer Ara Zohrabyan, also submitted an inquiry to the RA government to clarify whether information about Vahe Hovhannisyan’s conflict of interest with “G-Coders” LLC was known during the adoption of Government Decision No. 1942-A of 09.11.2023 or not.

In the fall of 2024, the number of criminal cases for “discrediting the army,” “spreading fake news,” and participation in “undesirable organizations” increased sharply. According to human rights groups, dozens of people were arrested, including journalists, bloggers, and ordinary citizens who posted facts about losses, war, and problems on social networks. Many were subjected to pressure: searches, threats, dismissal from work, deprivation of social guarantees, refusal to leave the country. Independent media that tried to cover the situation honestly closed or went underground. Fear has grown in society: expressing an opinion has become dangerous. Criticism is almost inaccessible. People stopped discussing the war, losses, and social problems publicly. November 2024 was the month when civil rights were further limited. Those who try to speak risk their freedom, and silence becomes the only safe option.

A member of the public organization “United Armenia”, political figure Samvel Azizyan recently initiated a collection of signatures related to the use of violence and persecution by law enforcement agencies against opposition activists and, in particular, members of the organization “United Armenia”.

The collection of signatures was transferred to the office of the Ombudsman of the Republic of Armenia and concerned the actions of the police during the protests that took place in Yerevan in 2023–2024. The appeal stated that during peaceful demonstrations, disproportionate physical force was used, arbitrary arrests were carried out, and targeted pressure was exerted on opposition figures.

Samvel Azizyan has actively participated in rallies against government policies in recent months, and, according to him, has experienced the consequences of these actions himself. According to a representative of the organization, in recent months they have been repeatedly summoned to the police and investigative authorities, subjected to interrogation, and in some cases to physical violence.

The signature collection text emphasized that some activists were held in police stations for several days without food, water or legal assistance. They were interrogated, forced to give false testimony about the head of the organization Vahan Kostanyan and sources of funding, and were also threatened with criminal prosecution.

However, the Ombudsman's office reported that the appeal was forwarded to the police, citing the fact that the issue was not within the scope of their powers. Samvel Azizyan expressed concern that the transfer of a complaint to the body against whose actions it was filed is at the very least absurd and, in his opinion, indicates the Ombudsman’s desire to please the authorities.

Let us remind you that recently a number of human rights organizations have also drawn attention to the unlawful actions of the police against protesters during political processes in Armenia, but at the moment to no avail.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Internal Affairs refused to comment on the accusations voiced by members of the United Armenia organization, and also did not provide information about what measures would be taken on the complaint forwarded to them from the Ombudsman’s office.